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Optimum Approximation of Flood Flow in the River Niger Basin

Egop S. E., Arimieari L. W.

Abstract


Providing a trustworthy approximation of flood features using historical time series data for the Lokoja hydrologic station in the Nigerian Niger River Basin was the main goal of this effort. The Public Inland Streams Authority (NIWA) in Lokoja gave the flood measurements. Using the annual maximum series (AMS), the flood frequency analysis (FFA) approach was used to analyze the extreme data. Five (5) probability distribution models were fitted to the observed data: The Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), Gumbel (EV1), two-parameter log-Normal (LN2), Pearson type III (P3), and two-parameter Normal (N2). A MATLAB application was offered for modelling and simulation. Pre-Whitening Analysis was used to remove auto-correlation and observable trends from the time series data. The Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution was determined by goodness of fit tests to be the best estimate of flood features for the Lokoja hydrologic station, with NSE, RMSE, and R2 test statistical values of 0.976, 494.4, and 0.979, respectively.


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References


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