A REVIEW ON COMBINING MODIFIED WEIBULL DISTRIBUTION METHOD FOR POWER SYSTEM RELIABILITY FORECAST

Abstract

Electric utility providers have been pushed to use long-term asset management strategies that are both cost-effective and reliable in order to achieve optimal system reliability in the deregulated environment. The age-based Weibull distribution was previously widely utilised in modelling and ageing failure predicting. Nevertheless, this model solely takes asset age into account and ignores other data, including asset infant mortality time and equipment energization delay. Because of the complexity of the model and the lack of explicit parameters, certain attempts to change Weibull distribution functions to simulate bathtub-shaped failure rate functions may be practically challenging. This research suggests four modified Weibull distribution models with simple physical interpretations relevant to power system applications in order to enhance the current techniques. Additionally, this work suggests a new approach to efficiently assess many Weibull distribution models and choose the appropriate model or models). More significantly, if multiple appropriate models are available, they can be mathematically merged to create a joint forecast model that may be more accurate at projecting future asset reliability. In order to show the practicality and utility of the suggested approach, it was finally used to a Canadian utility company for the reliability forecast of electromechanical relays and distribution poles.