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ARIMA BASED FORECASTS FOR ARECANUT PRODUCTION

KHADIJAH AYMAN

Abstract


The research focuses on predicting the arecanut production in Shimogga, Karnataka for the years from 2021 to 2025. A time series analysis using the Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average Model is used. The data for building the model was collected from 2004 to 2020 and it was processed using JMP Pro17 software. The initial analysis presents that the data is non-stationary which leads us to differencing the data to obtain stationary data. ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model is selected as the best fit. The model explains 83% of the variance in the data. The forecasted values indicated an upward and positive trend in the data.


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References


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