Using Arima Model for Predicting Cotton Production for the Year 2023-2047

Abstract

For production of cotton production in India it has been done a forecasting for next 25 years that is from 2023 to 2047. The previous historic data has been collected from “from 1970-2022 has been collected from “Agricultural Statistics at a Glance 2022” which is published by “ministry of agriculture and farmers welfare”, department of agriculture.” And for taken data ARIMA has been done and before doing the ARIMA for cotton production first it should be cheque the stationarity of the data with the help of ADF plot of correlogram, when it is done first it was not stationary but it made stationary by applying the difference order 1 and then the data become stationary. After this ARIMA model has been done from the ARIMA model (3,1,3) the AIC value is small so that model is selected for forecasting for next 25 years. From this all the forecasting for next 25 years has been done and from graph it is clearly says the cotton production in India for next 25 years is going to be increase exponentially.