Temporal Variations in Road Traffic Crash Severity in Rivers State: from Minor to Fatal Cases (2015–2024

Abstract

Road traffic crashes (RTCs) remain a major public health and economic concern in Nigeria, particularly in Rivers State, where oil and gas operations, dense commercial transport, and infrastructural gaps heighten risk. This study examined temporal patterns in RTC incidence and severity in Rivers State (mainly Port Harcourt) from 2015–2024, using data from the Federal Road Safety Corps and the National Bureau of Statistics. A total of 963 crashes involving 1,571 vehicles and 2,322 persons were analyzed using descriptive statistics, chi-square tests, and linear and segmented regression (p < 0.05). Serious injuries were the most frequent outcome (47.25%, n=455), followed by minor injuries (30.32%, n=292) and fatalities (20.35%, n=196), indicating a substantial burden of severe non-fatal harm. Passenger cars (32.85%) were most involved, alongside minibuses (21.77%) and trucks (17.95%). Commercial vehicles (51.88%) slightly exceeded private ownership (46.09%). Mean annual counts were 96.3 crashes, 159.9 injuries, and 4.7 fatalities. Significant temporal variations were observed in crash severity, vehicle type, and ownership (p < 0.01). Overall crashes (–5.56/year), injuries (–6.82/year), and fatalities (– 0.43/year) declined, peaking in 2018–2019 (~134–138 cases) before a sharp drop in 2020 linked to COVID-19 restrictions, reaching 47 cases in 2024. Despite fewer crashes, the severity of post- 2020 crashes worsened: fatal proportions rose by 1.87% per year (p = 0.005), serious injuries increased marginally, and minor injuries declined by 3.06% per year (p = 0.002). Segmented regression confirmed a significant post-2020 rise in fatality rates (p=0.028), with case fatality averaging 4.88% and exceeding 7% in several post-pandemic years. The findings highlight a paradox of declining incidence but rising lethality, likely reflecting persistent risks such as overloading, fatigue, and heavy goods vehicle involvement. Strengthened enforcement of driving regulations, fatigue management, vehicle safety standards, and infrastructure improvements are critical to reducing both crash frequency and severity in high-risk regions.